The development of a ship emission prediction model for ships transiting ice-covered waters

Veber, Joshua (2023) The development of a ship emission prediction model for ships transiting ice-covered waters. Masters thesis, Memorial University of Newfoundland.

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Abstract

Marine traffic in ice-covered waters is increasingly becoming a common practice with improved access to the Arctic, new ship technology, and commercial interests, including shipping and resource extraction. Currently, ships transiting in ice are exempt from carbon emissions reporting while in ice due to a limited understanding of ship performance in ice and a lack fairness compared with ships operating in open water. Therefore, the first stage in clarifying this area is to design an empirical emissions estimator for ships in ice. The lack of environmental reporting, specifically regarding level ice thickness, is first addressed by evaluating a method for statistically estimating sea ice thickness. The technique uses a model-tested ship performance equation to estimate level ice thickness from collected field data from the full-scale ship. The Canadian Coast Guard ship (CCGS) CCGS Henry Larsen was used to evaluate this method, and results were compared against Canadian Ice Service (CIS) ice charts for validation. Existing empirical performance models were compared with the CCGS Henry Larsen field data to investigate the limitations of predicting ship emissions in ice. A new empirical method was proposed, drawing on the existing prediction methods, and scaled using the CCGS Henry Larsen performance model. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has extensive regulations for evaluating ship emissions of ships transiting open water. These regulations were adapted to the developed ice performance model to predict fuel consumption and carbon emissions for vessels transiting in ice-covered water. The complete model developed provides innovative methods for determining environmental conditions and predicting emissions for ships in ice.

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