Modeling the effects of climate change on streamflow in a sub-basin of the Lower Churchill River, Labrador

Pryse-Phillips, Amy (2010) Modeling the effects of climate change on streamflow in a sub-basin of the Lower Churchill River, Labrador. Masters thesis, Memorial University of Newfoundland.

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Abstract

Future streamflow in the Churchill River is of great interest to Nalcor Energy, the Newfoundland and Labrador energy corporation that is currently planning the development of a 3,074 MW hydroelectric project in Labrador. The current study investigates the potential impacts of climate change on streamflow in a sub-basin of the lower Churchill River. -- In this study, a dynamically downscaled future climate scenario is used to drive a hydrological model of the Pinus River basin to assess climate change impacts on localized streamflow between current (1969-2000) and future (2039-2070) periods. The WATFLOOD hydrological model has been selected for this purpose while the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program has served as the source of regional climate model (RCM) data. -- Biases were detected in RCM temperature and precipitation and non-linear bias-correction procedures were applied prior to simulation in the hydrological model. The results indicated a 13 percent increase in mean annual flow, concentrated in the winter and spring seasons.

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