Analytical approach based generation planning with wind energy integration

Ahadi, Amir (2018) Analytical approach based generation planning with wind energy integration. Masters thesis, Memorial University of Newfoundland.

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Abstract

A large power grid consists of generation, transmission, and distribution. Power system planning is to develop new and upgrade existing power grids to satisfy the future load demand. Reliability evaluation has a great importance in power system planning and is viewed from two aspects, adequacy and system security. This thesis focuses on adequacy, which concerns the existence of enough power generation in the system to satisfy load demand. The output power of a wind turbine depends on wind speed which is highly uncertain and random. Hence, the first step in generation adequacy evaluation is modeling wind speed. In this research, the wind speed was predicted using the ARMA model and artificial neural network (ANN). After this step, hourly power output of wind energy was determined. This was done by the power curve characteristics of the wind turbine. Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) was then used to reduce the number of states in the wind turbine generator model. The main objective of this thesis is to evaluate the influence of wind energy to the overall reliability of the system. In addition, megawatt (MW) capacity of wind energy system required for replacing conventional generators while maintaining the same risk criteria was investigated. In this thesis, the Roy Billinton Test System (RBTS) was adopted for generation adequacy evaluation. The St. John’s International Airport was selected as the wind speed measurement site. The Vestas V90-2MW (IEC IIIA) was selected as the wind turbine for the case study. The main contributions of this thesis include modeling of generation adequacy evaluation of wind energy systems using an analytical approach; wind speed prediction by ARMA and Neural Networks; Fuzzy C means algorithm to reduce the number of wind turbine states; standalone renewable energy system design; and a procedure and guideline development for generation planning with wind power integration using the analytical approach.

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