Flood forecasting models for the Cimanuk River in West Jawa, Indonesia

Anwar, Saihul (1992) Flood forecasting models for the Cimanuk River in West Jawa, Indonesia. Masters thesis, Memorial University of Newfoundland.

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Abstract

This thesis concerns the development and application of two methods of estimating flood discharges on a real-time basis for the Cimanuk River at the City of Jatigede in West Jawa, Indonesia. -- The first method was based on a multiple regression analysis of the rainfalls at each of the four sub-basins of the Cimanuk River Basin and the runoff at the outlet of the Basin at Jatigede. This multiple regression model was developed based on the peakflows at the basin outlet as the dependent variable and the total rainfall at each of the four sub-basins as the independent variables. Both Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Robust regression methods were used to develop the multiple regression equation. -- The second approach was based on the concept of a Transfer Hydrograph (TH); which is a transfer function that transformed total rainfall into flood hydrographs. As opposed to the conventional unit hydrograph, which is derived using the effective rainfall and direct runoff of a basin, the TH was derived using the total rainfall at each of the four sub-basins and the direct runoff at the outlet of the whole basin at Jatigede. -- These two methods were validated using rainfall-runoff data that were not used in deriving the models. In comparing the two methods, the results showed that the TH approach gave more accurate forecasts in terms of both the magnitudes and the timing of the flood peaks.

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