Simulation of hydropower generation for the Citarum multi-reservoir system using synthetic flows

Soeharno, Agung W. H. (1992) Simulation of hydropower generation for the Citarum multi-reservoir system using synthetic flows. Masters thesis, Memorial University of Newfoundland.

[English] PDF (Migrated (PDF/A Conversion) from original format: (application/pdf)) - Accepted Version Available under License - The author retains copyright ownership and moral rights in this thesis. Neither the thesis nor substantial extracts from it may be printed or otherwise reproduced without the author's permission. Download (32MB) [English] PDF - Accepted Version Available under License - The author retains copyright ownership and moral rights in this thesis. Neither the thesis nor substantial extracts from it may be printed or otherwise reproduced without the author's permission. (Original Version)

Abstract

The demand for electricity in Java and Bali, Indonesia increases an average of 14% per year. This condition forces the electrical authority in Indonesia to consider various generation alternatives, including hydroelectric power, to meet the growing demand. One alternative is improving reservoir operations of existing hydro power systems so that improved production can be achieved. -- One such hydropower system considered in this thesis is the series of three hydroelectric stations, Saguling, Cirata and Jatiluhur, on the Citarum river, West Java. At present these three hydropower plants are operated by different authorities. They developed the current reservoir operation guideline (CROG) based on consensus. An average of assumed normal” years of historical flows are used to obtain the current rule curve. The estimation of annual energy generated is then obtained based on the series of twelve monthly flows of the average of the assumed normal year flows. -- In this study a simulation of reservoir operations was performed using synthetic inflows into the reservoirs. The synthetic flows were generated by a stochastic model that on average preserved the statistical characteristics of both historical annual and monthly flows. An auto-regressive moving average model was used to model the annual flows, and the Method of Fragments and the Two-Tier method were examined to model the monthly flows. -- Two rule curves were applied in the simulation of reservoir operations. These were the CROG rule curve and the water resources development guideline (WRDG) rule curve proposed by the Water Resources Development project. Two other limiting rule curves were also examined, one assuming that the reservoirs are kept empty, and the other assuming that the reservoirs are kept full. The operation of the system was simulated using both historical and synthetic inflow sequences, as well as the different rule curves, to evaluate the performance of the system. -- The results showed that the preferred stochastic model for the annual flows was an ARMA (2,0) model, and for the monthly flows, the Two-Tier model. The CROG rule curve was more suitable for the system than that based on the WRDG rule curve. From the reservoir operation simulation it was found that on average the available water in the Citarum River was smaller than the installed capacity of the Saguling, Cirata and Jatiluhur plants. The results of the simulation using synthetic flows could give more comprehensive analysis than using only historical flows.

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