A reliability approach to the quantification of occupational accidents in the offshore oil and gas industry

Attwood, Daryl (2006) A reliability approach to the quantification of occupational accidents in the offshore oil and gas industry. Doctoral (PhD) thesis, Memorial University of Newfoundland.

[English] PDF - Accepted Version Available under License - The author retains copyright ownership and moral rights in this thesis. Neither the thesis nor substantial extracts from it may be printed or otherwise reproduced without the author's permission. Download (82MB)

Abstract

Occupational accidents continue to occur at a frequency unacceptable to the offshore oil and gas industry. Current information and approaches related to the topic have been studied. Using reliability techniques, a holistic quantitative model has been developed and validated which can predict accident frequency. Model inputs include factors directly affecting accident frequency as well as corporate and external elements. Literature related to occupational accidents has been reviewed, concentrating on (i) modelling approaches taken by researchers over the past half century, (ii) statistical information currently available and (in influencing factors suggested by researchers for inclusion in accident models. A gap in the knowledge was confirmed, specifically the absence of a holistic, quantitative approach to oil and gas occupational accidents. An analysis of current global offshore oil and gas occupational accident statistics was performed, which revealed significant inter-regional and inter-company differences in accident frequency. This result helped to confirm that the group of factors affecting occupational accidents extended beyond the traditionally included direct and corporate elements to include external societal factors. Based partially on the literature review and database analysis, a model was developed which can predict occupational accident frequency in the offshore oil and gas industry. The model's holistic approach combines accident theories often preferred by representatives from the management, safety, engineering, and psychology disciplines. The approach is based on a chain of influence originating with external factors, which act through corporate elements to affect factors directly influencing the accident process. Expert opinion was used extensively to quantify (i) the relative strengths of the model elements directly affecting accident frequency and (ii) the relationships between the external, corporate, and direct layers. Using further expert opinion to provide input values, the model was validated by comparing its predictions with known results on Canadian production installations and in the Gulf ofMexico drilling sector.

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