Impact of climate change on human health in the coastal gulf region using data from global climate models

Chaudhary, Junaid Rafi (2006) Impact of climate change on human health in the coastal gulf region using data from global climate models. Masters thesis, Memorial University of Newfoundland.

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Abstract

The study was conducted to assess long-term impacts of the anticipated changes in temperature, precipitation and humidity in the five Arabian Gulf countries over the next hundred years. The impact of the anticipated climatic changes on human health was estimated based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) database. Long-term simulated records for A2 and B2 scenarios were retrieved for longitude 41.25°E to 61.875°E and latitude 9.278°N to 27.833°N for Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Yemen using the following three global climate models (GCMs). -- 1. Hadley Centre Global Model (U. K) -- 2. Canadian Centre for Climatic Modeling and Analysis (CCCMA) -- 3. National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Model (USA) -- Using average of 1970 to 2000 values as baseline values, the changes in the humidity, temperature and precipitation were estimated for the period 2020 to 2050 and 2070 to 2099. The study showed inconsistency in the prediction of temperature, precipitation and humidity by the above three GCMs, probably due to lack of validation and poorly defined boundary conditions for the region. The predicted temperature increase by NCAR was conservative in 100 years as compared to the other two models. While CCCMA and NCAR predicted higher precipitation fluctuations as compared to Hadley model. The higher uncertainty and inconsistent trends in data prediction as observed by these GCMs require further investigation by validating an appropriate regional climatic model. The climatic variations play a critical role in increased morbidity and mortality due to spatial and temporal spread, timing and severity of infectious diseases. The summarized impacts of climatic changes on the human health based on the empirical approaches project significant increases in disability adjusted life years (DALY) and mortality rates. Amongst the five Gulf coastal countries Yemen and Oman are found more adversely affected with higher anticipated mortality and DALY rates than Bahrain, Qatar, and UAE.

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