Comparison of Bayesian calibration methodologies for climate system models

Hauser, Tristan (2009) Comparison of Bayesian calibration methodologies for climate system models. Masters thesis, Memorial University of Newfoundland.

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Abstract

Earth Systems models that attempt to forecast equilibrium states or make long term predictions are sensitive to the unavoidable approximations they employ. It is therefore important for such models to be parameterized through objective and repeatable methods that quantify the uncertainties associated with the inexactness of these approximations. In this study Ensemble Kalman Filters and Neural Network Bayesian Models are used to investigate parameter sets for the Budyko Energy Balance Model and the more computationally demanding Planet Simulator of the University of Hamburg Meteorological Institute. These calibration methods employ observational data to generate posterior probability distributions for model parameter sets, allowing the determination of high-probability parameter sets and their confidence intervals. Being fully Bayesian, such approaches accurately propagate uncertainties in observational data into the posterior distributions. Comparing calibrated model results permits the two approaches to be assessed under varying levels of model complexity.

Item Type: Thesis (Masters)
URI: http://research.library.mun.ca/id/eprint/8662
Item ID: 8662
Additional Information: Includes bibliographical references (leaves 78-81).
Department(s): Science, Faculty of > Physics and Physical Oceanography
Date: 2009
Date Type: Submission
Library of Congress Subject Heading: Bayesian statistical decision theory; Climatic changes--Mathematical models; Dynamic climatology--Mathematical models

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